On behalf of rank; p representative of the average ranking in the previous World Cup; N representative of the average cycle of winning; cos trigonometric functions are used to adjust the predicted curves and the real error of plus or minus between the curves;
understand mathematics Toland Professor: Prof. Ming Tuolan row calculation formula is the first person; Toland professor said that not long ago, like the natural laws of science, he was a book in the book launched its own Germany will be scooped out of the World Cup this year.
for the previous World Cup competition law, then the team ranked according to probability inference, he is probably the This formula is more scientific and rigorous.
Professor Ge said Professor Toland selected model is better, the team calculated by the formula results in the game, and mathematical methods used to make adjustments to reduce the error, it is Formula Highlights.
Toland: so long as the function can be predicted
So, whether we can under the other teams in previous World Cup results, design a similar mathematical formula, and then measured out according to the formula their favorite team in this World Cup it will be possible to obtain the rankings? Toland professor replied in the affirmative. He said: , but only if the team needs to be calculated to leave some record of previous World Cup. have will be counted as long as the cosine, sine function, or exponential function of the level on it. is not difficult, strictly speaking, not a German professor of probability calculations, but based on past historical experience of first draw a real top curve, the curve looks like a cosine function curve. The next work to be done is to select a specific mathematical model based on historical painting prediction curve, only students can do that. Every function has its own curve, he formula from a number of cosine function, to find a match with the actual position curve of the model to apply. well chosen model to predict the probability of quasi- will be larger.
want to make more accurate forecasts, but also real and down to adjust the error curve and the predicted curve, history. Toland professor that he's
formula applies only to the German team
Professor Ge said that although the formula to do is reasonable, to find out from this formula the laws of the German team ranked over the years, but the race always a gap between prediction and reality, because the football game there is a big variable, not in strict accordance with the formula predicted the development, so the formula is not necessarily accurate.
Professor Ge also believe that the formula itself is inferred based on the experience of Germany's position in Germany, only Germany and can not common to other countries. Other countries want to predict rankings, need to find their historical re-suitable formula, but the derivation of this formula but can be a draw.
Professor Ge also said that the current model is not able to apply the formula to the Chinese team who, from the mathematical point of view when the Chinese team won the forecast is a very difficult task. there is no room for comparison, do not form a function curve, we can not calculate. in the previous World Cup team the variation of the results achieved, the performance of cyclical fluctuations to design a mathematical equation to estimate the 2010 World Cup in Germany in the results.
in accordance with the The average team in the previous World Cup ranking of 3.7, the title of the cycle is 4.5, that is, every 4 th or 5 th World Cup in Germany, won the title will be applied to the formula, the German team will be able to calculate the win in 2006 results.
Professor Toland estimates based on the results of the 2006 World Cup in Germany as early as we should win, but in fact the final year's World Cup away to Italy. In order to explain this one of the Professor Lan has sent a chart (chart different years), to verify the results of his calculation.
comparing two curves, Toland professor discovered in 1954, 1974 and 1990, respectively, took away the World Cup in Germany trophy, the team beat, you ready to champagne to celebrate it!
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